Scouting The MLB - August 2

Scouting The MLB - August 2

Here's a free edition of Scout's premium column featuring the top DFS plays and stacks of the day.

Weather Report

  • Scattered storms could result in a small delay in Detroit, batters should be safe to deploy

Stackable Menu

  1. Cleveland Indians hosting RHP Miles Mikolas
  2. Minnesota Twins (values) visiting RHP Scott Carroll
  3. Detroit Tigers hosting LHP Tyler Matzek
  4. Chicago White Sox hosting RHP Yohan Pino
  5. Milwaukee Brewers visiting RHP Justin Masterson

Longshot stack:Los Angeles Dodgers hosting LHP Tsuyoshi Wada


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Pitchers

Two Studs:

Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) vs. CHC: $9400 – Facing LHP Tsuyoshi Wada

Ryu is pitching with a ton of confidence right now. Since getting shelled in Detroit 4 starts ago, the left-hander has won 3 consecutive decisions while posting a 22:2 K/BB ratio. He’s averaging 26.6 DK PPG during that span, and should be able to post 20+ DK points in this matchup. The Cubs are no longer a joke, but with Alcantara struggling (batting .193 last 10 games) in the leadoff spot, and Chris Coghlan coming back to earth, they’re worth targeting in a tough road matchup. Cubs hitters have a 22.4% K-rate on the road this season, and lead the Majors with a 25.1% K-rate against LHP. The Dodgers southpaw has a great chance to meet value this evening.

Ervin Santana (ATL) @ SD: $9100 – Facing RHP Ian Kennedy

Santana’s performance will be crucial in GPP formats, as he’s either been lights out or so terrible that he’s worth stacking against most of the season. The talented RHP has regained some of his early season form, as he’s allowed 1 ER while striking out 21 batters over his last 15.2 IP. He’s coming off a dominant outing against these Padres (40.4 DK points) and will face their somewhat toothless lineup at pitcher-friendly Petco Park tonight. The Padres offense isn’t a complete joke since they’ve acquired Yangervis Solarte, and gotten Jedd Gyorko (batting .421 this week) back, but San Diego is far from an offensive juggernaut. If Santana can continue to find a way to pitch better against lefties (LHB are sporting a .358 wOBA against him this season), he should be able to post another great line against the Padres.



Value Play:

Chase Anderson (ARI) vs. PIT: $6600 – Facing RHP Vance Worley

The Diamonbacks rookie RHP has exceeded value as he’s averaging 22.5 DK points over his last 3 starts. He finished July with a 2.78 ERA and 10.32 K/9 ratio after a shaky July 2 start against these Pirates. Facing the same lineup at home, I think the rapidly improving young SP finds a way to hold the Bucs offense in check. He’s holding LHB to a 298 wOBA, and striking out 23.6% of right-handers. If he can pitch around the red-hot Josh Harrison, the rest of Pittsburgh’s lineup may not be able to get much going against Anderson. Don’t necessarily fill your 50/50 and H2H lineups with the rookie, but consider him for salary relief.

Longshot Pitcher:

R.A. Dickey (TOR) @ HOU: $7800 – Facing LHP Brett Oberholtzer

Dickey is sporting a 4.50 K/BB ratio over his last 8 starts and that's led to pretty consistent success. Averaging 18.8 DK PPG over his last 10, and coming off a 7-inning, 10-K performance at Fenway Park, he's a far different pitcher than the guy who gave up 5 ER to the Astros back on April 10. He's an excellent GPP play team against an Astros squad that leads the Majors with a 23.5% K-rate this season. This young lineup is capable of crushing mistakes, but can also be too aggressive at times, so Dickey has a chance to pile up Ks and avoid serious damage.



Batters

Catcher:

Devin Mesoraco (CIN) @ MIA: $4300 – Facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Eovaldi does have better splits against RHB, but he’s been hit so hard lately (21 H, 18 ER, 3 HR last 3 starts) that I’m willing to bet on Mesoraco in this RvR matchup. The Reds backstop has been much better against righties anyways, with 16 HR and a .318 ISO against RHP this season. He’s averaging 11.6 DK points over his last 6 starts despite being essentially the only dangerous hitter in the Reds lineup right now. Cincy may not get much going on offense, but Mesoraco is likely to be a part of whatever production they manage this Saturday night.

Potential Value:

Kurt Suzuki (MIN) has been rock since July 1 with a .337 average and deserves consideration at $3500.

Longshot:

Brayan Pena ($2900) is a great punt play that’s a longshot to produce big DK points against Eovaldi. He’ll bat 5th for the Reds and has added upside due to the platoon advantage.



First Base:

Jose Abreu (CWS) vs. MIN: $5400 – Facing RHP Yohan Pino

If you’re going to pay up for a 1B, you pretty much have to target the unstoppable Jose Abreu. He’s in the midst of a 21-game hitting streak, and hasn’t made an out in his last 9 at bats. Pino, a young right-hander that’s sporting a 5.13 ERA over his last 7 starts, seems unlikely to cool off the league’s HR leader. No player has the same floor/ceiling combination as Abreu, who is hitting .572 with 6 XBH over his last 7 games, and he’s actually a bargain at this relatively reasonable price.

Potential Value:

Garrett Jones ($3800) has extensive experience facing RHP Homer Bailey. The Marlins 1B is 12 for 39 (.308) with 2 HR in his career against Bailey, who struggles against LHB.

Longshot:

Chris Parmelee (MIN) is a worthwhile punt play at $2800. He’s averaging 10.3 DK points over his last 3 games and will have the platoon advantage against RHP Scott Carroll.



Second Base:

Ian Kinsler (DET) vs. COL: $4500 – Facing LHP Tyler Matzek

Matzek has been better than expected for the Rockies this season, but it’s highly doubtful that he can hold a fearsome Tigers offense in check on the road tonight. Detroit’s usual 1-5 hitters (Rajai Davis, Kinsler, Miggy Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Torii Hunter) have outstanding platoon splits, and are a huge reason that the Tigers lead the MLB with a .285 average against LHP. Kinsler is a career .307 hitter vs. lefties, and seems to be coming out of his slump with 2 singles and 2 doubles in his last 3 games. He should be involved in any Tigers rallies this evening.

Potential Value:

Jordany Valdespin ($3500) has been solid out of the Marlins 2-hole with 8.1 DK PPG over his last 8 appearances. He’ll have the platoon advantage at home against RHP Homer Bailey tonight.

Longshot:

Go against the grain by selecting Jedd Gyorko ($3400) against a streaking Ervin Santana. The Padres infielder is red-hot (.421) since coming off the DL on Monday and could be part of a contrarian stack.



Third Base:

Adrian Beltre (TEX) @ CLE: $4700 – Facing LHP T.J House

Beltre’s upside has been limited by the lackluster hitters behind him in the Rangers lineup, but he’s hitting .378 over his last 10 games and .444 (8-18) over his last 5. He should ride that momentum into a plus matchup against LHP T.J House, who is allowing RHB to post a .397 wOBA this season. House has a terrible 21.9% HR/FB ratio, and Beltre is more than capable of taking him yard. The Rangers 3B leads the team with a .516 slugging percentage, and hits for higher average (.346) against LHP this season. It’s very likely he logs multiple hits this evening.

Potential Value:

Danny Valencia ($3000) is 3 for 8 with 2 doubles in his last 2 appearances and will almost certainly be in the Blue Jays lineup against LHP Brett Oberholtzer.

Longshot:

Yangervis Solarte (SD) is a relatively safe play on a daily basis, but is facing a RHP in Ervin Santana that’s on fire right now. For $3400, Solarte is a longshot to post solid DK point totals.



Shortstop:

Danny Santana (MIN) @ CWS: $3700 – Facing RHP Scott Carroll

If you take out his appearances against Chris Sale, Santana is hitting .392 (11-28) over his last 8 games. He’s averaging 10.88 DK points in those contests, and walks into a plus matchup with weak RHP Scott Carroll. The switch-hitting leadoff man has the platoon advantage against Carroll, who is allowing LHB to post a .377 wOBA this season. Carroll’s posted a couple of Quality Starts recently, but is still a below-average pitcher that’s sporting a 5.82 ERA at home. Santana should be able to set the table by reaching base against him.

Potential Value:

Chris Taylor ($2800) is a bit more expensive, and has been moved down in the order with Austin Jackson leading off for the Mariners now. The rookie SS is still a solid punt play as he’s batting .350 through his first 6 MLB games.

Longshot:

Asdrubal Cabrera ($4400) didn’t produce anything in his Nationals debut, but he’s 6 for 16 with 2 HR in his career against A.J. Burnett, who tends to struggle against LHB.



Outfielders:

Yasiel Puig (LAD) vs. CHC: $5300 – Facing LHP Tsuyoshi Wada

Puig is hitting .350, and has only failed to produce DK points once since July 1. He has a solid floor, but has also flashed plenty of upside by producing 23, 23, and 37 DK points in 3 different games this week. The Cuban defector hasn’t had much success against lefties this season, but he hit .340 against LHP in a bigger sample size during the 2013 season, and could definitely make solid contact off Wada. The Cubs rookie LHP held the struggling Reds offense in check, and stymied the Rockies away from Coors Field, but was lit up by the Padres and doesn’t exactly have electric stuff. His best pitch, a curveball, may not be particularly effective against Puig, who’s been more effective against the curve than any other pitch this season.

Lucas Duda (NYM) vs. SF: $4500 – Facing RHP Jake Peavy

Just when you thought Duda would lay a dud, he came through with a solo HR in the 8th inning to produce 14 DK points last night. He’s now reached base in 13 straight games and has produced double-digit DK points in 7 of his last 9. Peavy has allowed 14 HR (1.86 HR/9) to LHB, and is sporting a terrible 5.69 FIP against lefties. Duda has faced him 3 times, striking out twice, but going yard once as well, and the way he’s slashing right now, it wouldn’t be surprising if he cleared the fences at Citi Field tonight.

Rajai Davis (DET) vs. COL: $4300 – Facing LHP Tyler Matzek

The Tigers offense disappointed against weak LHP Franklin Morales last night, but those hitters won’t have to wait long for a shot at redemption. Matzek comes into tonight’s contest with RHB posting a .351 wOBA against him, and will face a leadoff man in Davis that is sporting a .422 wOBA against righties. The speedster will look to build on last night’s 2-hit performance, and has plenty of upside on the base paths.



Potential Values:

Evan Gattis ($4000) inexplicably got last night off with a weak LHP on the mound, and the Braves slugger is a longshot to make up for his absence by smashing an XBH or two tonight.

Ben Revere ($3600) continues to hit, and the Phillies leadoff man deserves consideration as a cheap option for 50/50 and H2H lineups.

Dan Robertson ($2400) is an excellent value play as he'll bat 9th against LHP T.J. House. The rookie has great platoon splits and is averaging 9.4 DK points over his last 5 starts.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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