Scouting The MLB - July 23

Scouting The MLB - July 23

Most of the MLB action takes place tonight, giving you some time to sift through the stats and splits to craft your DFS lineups

Weather Report

  • Scattered storms could delay games in Philadelphia and New York, monitor the forecast if you're using SP in those games
  • The Dodgers and Pirates could be delayed by early evening showers, but the game should be safe

Stackable Menu

  1. Oakland A's hosting RHP Brad Peacock
  2. Pittsburgh Pirates hosting RHP Dan Haren
  3. Toronto Blue Jays hosting RHP Clay Buchholz

Longshot stack:St. Louis Cardinals hosting RHP Alex Cobb


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Pitchers

Two Studs:

Yu Darvish (TEX) @ NYY: $11,800 – Facing RHP David Phelps

How can YOU fade Yu against a Yankees offense that was just shut down by a rookie? Despite the potential that he struggles to keep hitters away from the short porch at Yankee Stadium, Darvish’s upside is unequivocal this evening. The ASB did the tall right-hander well, as he came out strong with a 36.2 DK-point performance in Toronto to open the second half. He struck out 12 while allowing 1 ER off a solo shot, which is typical for an Ace that leads the A.L. with an 11.36 K/9 ratio. Despite playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, the Yankees have scored the 2nd fewest runs of any home team, and are slugging just .398 against visiting pitchers this season. Darvish could dominate this watered down lineup.

Lance Lynn (STL) vs. TB: $9100 – Facing RHP Alex Cobb

Lynn will look to pick up his teammate by silencing Tampa’s bats in the second game of this interleague series. While the Rays managed to get to Adam Wainwright early, they may have a tougher time reading Lynn, as their active batters have a total of 9 plate appearances in their careers against the RHP. Lynn averages around 93 MPH on his fastball, but opposing batters have a tough picking up on his release point, which can result in impressive strikeout totals. He’s prone to the occasional implosion, but if you take out two horrendous outings against the Giants, and at the Dodgers, he’s averaging 24.75 DK points over 8 starts. Lynn rarely falters in front of the Cardinals faithful, as he’s 25-10 with a 2.94 ERA in his career at Busch Stadium. Expect him to navigate the Rays lineup on his way to another Quality Start.



Value Play:

Jesse Chavez (OAK) vs. HOU: $7600 – Facing RHP Brad Peacock

At this price tag, Chavez should be able to meet value by producing around 15 DK points, and the 4 DK points he could earn with a Win would bolster that number. Perhaps you heard about his adversary’s disastrous start before the ASB? Brad Peacock lasted just 1/3 of an inning as he gave up a leadoff homer and allowed two more runners to reach base. He’s the cheapest pitcher on the board for a reason and could have another rough outing as he faces the dangerous A’s tonight. While Chavez was lit up by the left-handed Mariners lineup in his last start, he’ll return home, where he’s sporting a 2.13 ERA, and .217 BAA in 8 starts this season. He’s averaging 24 DK PPG over his last 3 home starts, and has the platoon advantage against the Astros primarily right-handed lineup, making him a decent bet to avoid an implosion.

Longshot Pitcher:

Nathan Eovaldi (MIA) @ ATL: $5900 – Facing RHP Ervin Santana

Eovaldi is not as much of a longshot as you may think in this matchup. His price tag continues to drop due to lackluster performances, but while his latest dud (8 ER over 4 IP) came against a Giants team that's had his number over the past couple years, it's a completely different story when the Marlins RHP faces Atlanta. Current Braves are batting a collective .221 against Eovaldi, who specializes against strikeout-prone RHB. Evan Gattis, Chris Johnson, and the Uptons are a combined 4 for 44 (.090) with 15 Ks against tonight's starter, which is a huge reason Eovaldi is sporting a 1.29 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in 3 starts against the Bravos this year. He's been solid on the road this season, and could come through in this matchup.



Batters

Catcher:

Stephen Vogt (OAK) vs. HOU: $3300 – Facing RHP Brad Peacock

The A's offense was disappointing last night, as they plated just 2 runs against mediocre LHP Brett Oberholtzer. However, Oakland batters are hitting a collective 11 points higher (.255) against RHP, and have a great chance to bounce back against a below-average starter tonight. Peacock has not been very good at all with a 5.68 FIP and 1.46 K/BB ratio on the road this season. Vogt is crushing RHP at an elite level, as he's sporting a .423 wOBA and has 176 wRC+ against righties. That's why he's been batting 2nd against right-handed starters recently, and why he'd be a fantastic value play if that were the case this evening.

Potential Value:

Dioner Navarro ($3300) has homered in consecutive games and remains a force in the middle of the Blue Jays lineup. If you move Vogt to the outfield Navarro could be a great option to fill the catcher spot.

Longshot:

Wellington Castillo (CHC) is yet another catcher that costs just $3300. He's heating up recently and should occupy the 6th spot in the Cubs suddenly dangerous lineup.



First Base:

Matt Adams (STL) vs. TB: $4100 – Facing RHP Alex Cobb

Of course you’d like to find a way to afford Anthony Rizzo, who has 5 HR in his last 4 games, but if you’re looking for a safe option in a balanced 50/50 or H2H lineup, I’d consider the Cardinals lefty first baseman. Adams has produced DK points in 22 of his last 24 appearances, and leads the N.L. with a .362 average against RHP. Alex Cobb has been pitching better lately, but certainly hasn’t been dominant with a 4.22 ERA and 15:6 K:BB ratio over his last 4 starts. Adams is averaging 8.2 DK PPG at home this season, and would be averaging more if the rest of the Cardinals batters could reach base with some consistency. They could be a sneaky stack against a vulnerable RHP tonight, and Adams will likely bat cleanup for the Cards.

Potential Value:

Dan Johnson (TOR) is an intriguing punt play for the minimum price. He got the day off yesterday but should be back in the lineup to take some hacks at Clay Buchholz.

Longshot:

Brandon Moss ($4700) is 2 for 8 with 5 Ks against RHP Brad Peacock. If you respect BvP stats, he may be a longshot, but his splits against RHP are stellar to the point that he warrants consideration as part of an Oakland stack.



Second Base:

Arismendy Alcantara (CHC) vs. SD: $3900 – Facing RHP Ian Kennedy

Until his price tag matches his production, Alcantara is a near must-play in most formats. He’s averaging 12.3 DK PPG since becoming available on DraftKings, and continues to display his versatility as he homered in the 7th innings of last night’s win. He’ll move back to what seems to be his favored side of the plate as he faces a right-handed starter in Kennedy tonight, and the Padres RHP simply could not retire Mets lefties in his last start. He has a 3.46 BB/9 ratio this month and Padres catchers are way below average in terms of throwing out runners, so look for Alcantara to be aggressive if he reaches base. With Darwin Barney designated for assignment, the Cubs new 2B should be locked in atop their order for the foreseeable future.

Potential Value:

Enrique Hernandez ($2500) responded well in a move to the 2-spot of the Astros lineup and won’t need much to hit value at his current price tag.

Longshot:

Pairing Emilio Bonifacio ($3400) with Alcantara worked well last night. The Cubs speedster will could lead off again and certainly has the potential to exceed value.



Third Base:

Josh Donaldson (OAK) vs. HOU: $4500 – Facing RHP Brad Peacock

Donaldson stayed hot with 11 DK points as he reached base twice last night, and warrants consideration as the A’s host an even worse pitcher in Brad Peacock tonight. He’s 3 for 11 with a HR off the Astros RHP, who is allowing RHB to post a .357 wOBA this season. The wind is expected to be blowing out of Oakland Coliseum this evening, which would help a power hitter that’s locked in, and Donaldson has come out of the break scorching hot. The first rule of MLB DFS this season seems to be to stack the A’s when possible, as they have the best run differential (+149) in the Majors by far, and are heavy favorites (-265) tonight.

Potential Value:

Josh Harrison (PIT) is a fantastic option at just $3500. He may not have deserved an all-star selection, but the Bucs utility man can produce in a lot of different ways and walks into a plus matchup against poor RHP Dan Haren.

Longshot:

Justin Turner ($3400) has filled in well for the Dodgers with Hanley on the shelf for a couple of games. He’s produced 24 DK points over his last two games and could exceed value again if he’s in the lineup against LHP Francisco Liriano.



Shortstop:

Jose Reyes (TOR) vs. BOS: $4600 – Facing RHP Clay Buchholz

The back end of the Blue Jays lineup may be depleted right now, but Reyes is doing his job atop the order. The switch-hitter filled it up during last night’s win as he logged 3 hits, including a HR, double, and stole a base to produce 29 DK points. That’s not an aberration for Reyes, who is usually a terror for visiting teams as he’s sporting a .373 wOBA with 15 SB in 44 home games this season. Clay Buchholz followed up his CGSO before the ASB with a lackluster performance, as he allowed 10 H and 4 ER to the Royals in his last outing. He’s worth targeting until he shows some sort of consistency, and Reyes is in a class by himself at a weak SS position this evening.

Potential Value:

Jordy Mercer (PIT) could be a decent part of a Pirates stack at $3000. He’s averaging a modest 5.8 DK PPG over his last 10 appearances but has the potential to produce some big lines.

Longshot:

Jhonny Peralta (STL) hasn’t done anything in 6 career at bats against RHP Alex Cobb, but all it takes is one mistake for the power-hitting SS to leave the yard. At $3600, he’s a longshot to do just that tonight.



Outfielders:

Andrew McCutchen (PIT) vs. LAD: $5600 – Facing RHP Dan Haren

The Pirates jumped all over a hobbled Josh Beckett last night, and remain a solid stack option in this matchup. Dan Haren is allowing batters to post a .375 wOBA, and has a 5.11 ERA in 11 road starts this season The RHP has allowed 24 H, 15 ER, and 4 HR over his last 3 starts, and Cutch is 4 for 12 with 2 HR in his career against him. Haren has reverse-platoon splits, as he’s allowing RHB to sport a .359 wOBA this season. With a 1.75 HR/9 on the road, Haren is definitely worth targeting, and the Pirates best hitter is a great candidate to take him out of PnC Park.

Melky Cabrera (TOR) vs. BOS: $4300 – Facing RHP Clay Buchholz

Don’t sleep on the Melk Man just because he has mediocre career numbers against Buchholz. He’s 5 for 21 (.238) with no XBH against the Red Sox RHP, but we all know that Buch is not the same pitcher that stifled Cabrera in years past. For most of this season, Buchholz has been giving up hits in bunches, and Cabrera is very hot right now with 3 hits in 3 of his last 4 starts. It would be shocking if he didn’t reach base at least once against Buchholz.

Christian Yelich (MIA) @ ATL: $4000 – Facing RHP Ervin Santana

The Marlins aren’t the best team to use as a stack, but they do have a couple of talented players that can light it up on their own. With 8 HR and 11 SB this season, Yelich is the type of versatile performer that can really bolster a DFS lineup. He’s 4 for 8 with 2 BB and 4 runs scored so far this series, and has yet to face the Braves worst starter against LHB. Santana is allowing lefties to sport a .375 wOBA this season, and struggles against hitters like Yelich.



Potential Values:

Gregory Polanco ($3900) should be part of a profitable Pirates stack. If he’s leading off against Dan Haren he’s a great option at this price.

Ben Revere ($3600) is a longshot to produce against impressive LHP Madison Bumgarner, but he is 2 for 2 off the Giants’ Ace in his career. Revere responded well (3 H, 2 SB, 23 DK points) when moved back into the leadoff spot last night and is worth consideration if he’s atop the lineup again.

Look for Scott Van Slyke ($3600) to draw the start with LHP Francisco Liriano on the mound. The Dodgers extra outfielder hit a pinch-hit HR off a lefty last night and remains a huge threat against southpaws.


I will answer any lineup questions on Twitter: @nweitzer7

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